Dr. Ryan Burge has a dual career, teaching Political Science at a university and serving as a pastor in an American Baptist church. A self-confessed data nerd, he pores over polling data in search of trends in religion. Recently he posted a column on “Four of the Most Dramatic Shifts in American Religion Over the Last 50 Years.” Things typically change slowly in religion surveys, he says, but these four trends “still blow my mind.”
I’ll provide a brief overview of Burge’s findings, and you can find more detail on his website.
The Evangelical Surge (1983-2000)
Election year fever is heating up, and already we’re seeing internet headlines about the powerful voting bloc of evangelicals. When Jimmy Carter—a Democrat—catapulted into the presidency in 1976, and spoke openly about his born-again faith, a Newsweek cover story pronounced that bicentennial year “The Year of the Evangelical.” Yet, as Burge points out, the real surge in the movement took place in 1983. In a single decade, the percentage of evangelicals shot upward to encompass three in ten American adults.
During that growth spurt, evangelical megachurches were springing up across the country, and Christian music was gaining airtime. People like Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell were regulars on television, talking as much about politics as theology. When the media wanted a soundbite from an evangelical, they turned to such prominent figures who already had sophisticated satellite uplinks and would offer a ready opinion on any subject.
By the year 2000, however, the percentage of evangelicals had declined to the same level as existed in 1983, and little has changed since then.
Young People Lose Their Religion (1991-1998)
Burge’s second chart covers the next two of the four dramatic shifts. The year 1991 saw the beginning of a downward trend among 18- to 35-year-olds. The number in that age group who checked “Christian” when asked their religious affiliation began an abrupt decline, falling from 87 percent to 64 percent. Meanwhile the “Nones,” who had no religious affiliation, grew from 8 percent to around 30 percent. Noting the steep changes between 1991 and 1998, Burge says, “That’s an insane level of growth/decline in such a short period of time.”
Burge proposes several possible explanations. Politics became increasingly polarized, especially over culture war issues such as abortion, transgenderism, and same-sex marriage. The end of the Cold War lowered the barrier between God-fearing Americans and godless communists, even as a surge of immigrants gave exposure to other religions. In addition, the internet allowed young people to explore different faiths as well as listen to strident voices against all faith.
In a mirror image of the decline among Christians, the Nones experienced a fivefold increase in just three decades. Burge comments that “the rise of the ‘nones’ may be the most significant shift in American society over the last thirty years.” The trend inspired him to write a book about the phenomenon (The Nones: Where They Came From, Who They Are, and Where They Are Going).
The Collapse of the Mainline (1975-1988)
Burge’s final chart depicts a dramatic decline within mainline Protestant churches, which include the United Methodist Church, PCUSA Presbyterian, Episcopalian, American Baptist, the United Church of Christ, and some Lutheran denominations. These tend to be more moderate theologically than evangelicals, and most allow women pastors and are open and affirming to same sex couples.
In the 1950s more than half of all Americans belonged to this group; now barely 10 percent do so. Tens of millions have left mainline denominations, many of them opting for an evangelical church not affiliated with a denomination.
Burge, an American Baptist pastor, has no sure explanation for the major shift. Nor does he dare to predict the future.
Will the non-affiliated Nones continue to increase or has their number peaked? Will the disaffected young return to church as they become parents? Will mainline denominations revive, or will evangelicals experience another surge (even as their largest denomination, the Southern Baptist Convention, bleeds members)?
I’m neither a social scientist nor a prophet, so I leave these questions with you the reader. What do you think, and why does it matter?
…
Here’s what I do know about churches:
I do know churches make mistakes
I do know there are times when churches don’t minister and love well
I do know that pastors fall and pastors fall deep and far
I do know that pastors and teachers are flawed, broken, and are human, and make grave mistakes
I do know that pastors, leaders, and teachers are held to a higher standard and will stand to account
I do know people put pastors and leaders on pedestals where they don’t belong except Jesus
I do know there are churches that think about money, programs, impressive lighting, high tech media, the best of the best kid’s programs, teen programs, and programs in general.
I don’t think there’s really anything wrong or bad with programs. However, what is wrong and bad, is when the Holy Spirit is quenched.
I believe you all know what I’m talking about and you have probably experienced the same thing as I have.
There have been numerous times that I’ve had to go to pastors and talk to them about things that have hurt me, upset me or I disagree with. I want to make it right. I don’t want to do things wrong biblically around going to my brother or sister and resolving conflict, so it doesn’t continue to follow me into another church or where I leave the church completely.
We all have our journey of faith, I may not like the faith walk someone else is making, it is their faith walk, and what they believe to be true may not be true for me. I struggled just like anybody else who struggles. When really what I want is for every person that I come into contact with to know the true, loving Savior.
I do know one thing, after being a believer for 40 years, that I may only be a conduit for a time when I come into contact with people who have unbelief and then there will be somebody else in their path that brings them to know Jesus and may not be me.
I think Jesus would want all of us to have a spiritual walk that we invite him into, in order for him to minister to us in ways that we will never get from a human. He loves us, he wants us to want him, he desires us to desire him, he wants to fill our cup with overflowing love, acceptance, understanding, and blessings.
Someone said on here and I’m wondering out loud what the meaning of following Christ and not a religion really means?
I will follow Jesus at any given moment and not religion. This is food for thought for me though; “Do I follow Jesus or do I follow religion?”
I don’t see it as criticism regarding most of the comments that were made on these posts. I see it more as individuals sharing their own opinions of things and understanding that it is their opinions and their opinions only and we don’t have to believe it or adhere to it.
I think I have come to realize that if you will, any organized religion is going to have faults and they are going to do things at times that we don’t agree with, and yet we have to figure out individually whether or not we can live in that faith community that we’re involved with or figure out what we can do to bring change if we can.
All in all, I believe many times people are really hungry for Jesus and yet they rebel against him because if we really know Jesus, we live according to what Jesus teaches. I don’t know if any of you are like me, but I have rebelled against Jesus’ teachings out of a lack of humility and an overbearing amount of pride.
How do you dispute the Word of God?
I don’t think in general, people from different generations will shy away from religious thought and exploration. I believe we all have a God-hole that needs filled and I/we will need to figure this out individually.
I’m not certain that it’s helpful for individuals to say that mega churches do not follow Jesus.
I’m not sure any of us needs to kow-tow to an organization/leader. But, if I have good leadership, what would be the reason I wouldn’t want to submit? This is biblical you know. I choose being a servant, kneeling before the throne of grace, to receive what He wants to give me.
I appreciate you all. Again, thank you for sharing. Please know my prayers will be offered up over your hurt from the church however that came to be.
Father God in Heaven, I pray now for every person who is on this posting that you will minister to them with love, compassion, and grace. Jesus, help them to find reconciliation, restoration, and forgiveness for the things that have been done to them and what they have now been doing to others because of the hurt that they have. Jehovah Rapha, you are the one who heals, and I pray that Jeremiah 30:17 washes over each person here, God says, “I will restore you to health and heal your wounds, declares the Lord.” I declare and decree that all your wounds, sufferings, and healings that need to happen will in fact occur in Jesus name, Amen.
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I have read all the comments and have observed a recurring theme — the hypocrisy of the “church.’ I can identify with w hat Deborah wrote. I pastored several hurches in various parts of the U S over 55 years. Did I ever see hypocrisy or encounter lack of appreciation? Did I ever see genuine love and compassion? Tests and trials? Of course. Was it worth the effort and/or criticism? Would I do it all over again if I hd THE CHOICE?
The church, in mimicking corporate operations, stunted its growth and opportunity to be the model for corporate leadership. Quiet quitting applies to more than work.
Christendom has been weighed in the scales, and Christianity has found wanting. I entered the Episcopal ministry at a time of supposed optimism. It was a false dawn. My major was philosophy, and my ongoing interest is religion and cognitive science. I can best describe myself now as a disengaged Christian. Here are some factors operating here and in Europe which have led to so many nones.
WWI and WWII. If this was what Christendom was about, who really wants that.
The Vietnam and Mideastern never ending wars have destroyed confidence in whatever spirit lay behind seeing the United States as a City Built upon a Hill.
US foreign policy, from the very beginning, has been party to killing millions of civilians, from indigenous Americans to Central and South Americans, all of those in SE Asia, Iraq. Or anyone else who may threaten corporate profits.
My biggest and overwhelming regret is the world we are leaving to our children and grandchildren.
One could say that Karma has come, or more accurately that are lack of respect for the lives of other who bore no ill will against us, has come home and no lives anymore or worthy of any respect.
Human nature hasn’t changed. The OT is filled with stories of God’s people prefering their own way intead of God’s. When Jesus walked here on earth, the Jewish elites had completely perverted God’s message. The NT warns us of false teachers because God knows where our tendency leads. But the church is God’s idea, He has chosen to work through her. Perhaps she is going through a pruning process. Even though painful, it is necessary. We have been very blessed to have found a church where God is worshipped, the Bible is preached and we are encouraged to love each other and our neighbors.