Dr. Ryan Burge has a dual career, teaching Political Science at a university and serving as a pastor in an American Baptist church. A self-confessed data nerd, he pores over polling data in search of trends in religion. Recently he posted a column on “Four of the Most Dramatic Shifts in American Religion Over the Last 50 Years.” Things typically change slowly in religion surveys, he says, but these four trends “still blow my mind.”
I’ll provide a brief overview of Burge’s findings, and you can find more detail on his website.
The Evangelical Surge (1983-2000)
Election year fever is heating up, and already we’re seeing internet headlines about the powerful voting bloc of evangelicals. When Jimmy Carter—a Democrat—catapulted into the presidency in 1976, and spoke openly about his born-again faith, a Newsweek cover story pronounced that bicentennial year “The Year of the Evangelical.” Yet, as Burge points out, the real surge in the movement took place in 1983. In a single decade, the percentage of evangelicals shot upward to encompass three in ten American adults.
During that growth spurt, evangelical megachurches were springing up across the country, and Christian music was gaining airtime. People like Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell were regulars on television, talking as much about politics as theology. When the media wanted a soundbite from an evangelical, they turned to such prominent figures who already had sophisticated satellite uplinks and would offer a ready opinion on any subject.
By the year 2000, however, the percentage of evangelicals had declined to the same level as existed in 1983, and little has changed since then.
Young People Lose Their Religion (1991-1998)
Burge’s second chart covers the next two of the four dramatic shifts. The year 1991 saw the beginning of a downward trend among 18- to 35-year-olds. The number in that age group who checked “Christian” when asked their religious affiliation began an abrupt decline, falling from 87 percent to 64 percent. Meanwhile the “Nones,” who had no religious affiliation, grew from 8 percent to around 30 percent. Noting the steep changes between 1991 and 1998, Burge says, “That’s an insane level of growth/decline in such a short period of time.”
Burge proposes several possible explanations. Politics became increasingly polarized, especially over culture war issues such as abortion, transgenderism, and same-sex marriage. The end of the Cold War lowered the barrier between God-fearing Americans and godless communists, even as a surge of immigrants gave exposure to other religions. In addition, the internet allowed young people to explore different faiths as well as listen to strident voices against all faith.
In a mirror image of the decline among Christians, the Nones experienced a fivefold increase in just three decades. Burge comments that “the rise of the ‘nones’ may be the most significant shift in American society over the last thirty years.” The trend inspired him to write a book about the phenomenon (The Nones: Where They Came From, Who They Are, and Where They Are Going).
The Collapse of the Mainline (1975-1988)
Burge’s final chart depicts a dramatic decline within mainline Protestant churches, which include the United Methodist Church, PCUSA Presbyterian, Episcopalian, American Baptist, the United Church of Christ, and some Lutheran denominations. These tend to be more moderate theologically than evangelicals, and most allow women pastors and are open and affirming to same sex couples.
In the 1950s more than half of all Americans belonged to this group; now barely 10 percent do so. Tens of millions have left mainline denominations, many of them opting for an evangelical church not affiliated with a denomination.
Burge, an American Baptist pastor, has no sure explanation for the major shift. Nor does he dare to predict the future.
Will the non-affiliated Nones continue to increase or has their number peaked? Will the disaffected young return to church as they become parents? Will mainline denominations revive, or will evangelicals experience another surge (even as their largest denomination, the Southern Baptist Convention, bleeds members)?
I’m neither a social scientist nor a prophet, so I leave these questions with you the reader. What do you think, and why does it matter?
Big topic. Many issues. My narrow response addresses the drop off in church attendance in the young.
The church has become too politically outspoken. Too hateful. It attacks anyone who doesn’t indulge in its sins of pride and self-righteousness but engages in other conduct it considers sinful: transgenderism, same sex marriage, and divorce.
If Jesus came back today, I believe He would treat the church the way He did the Pharisees.
Young people want no part of the Religious Right’s vitriol. Until Christians start striving to act like Jesus, the young will search for truth elsewhere.
When in the Bible did Jesus walk up to a gay person and condemn them?
Who was the first non-Jewish convert to “The Way?” Wasn’t it a eunuch? Why was he a eunuch? Was he transgender? We are not told. So the reason must not be important, but he was the first.
If we want people to love God and His Son, Jesus, we must show His love to others.
I spent the first thirty years of my life as a “non-believing” believer. I wrongly understood Christianity as America’s default faith, and I believed that Jesus died for the sins of the world because God loves everybody. I hoped for universalism and justification by death, although I did not think in those terms at the time. The only time spent in church was for baptisms, weddings, and funerals. For the next thirty years, I entered a tumultuous relationship with the Biblical Jesus and was immediately thrust into a love-hate relationship with the Church. It is one thing to deal with legalism, antinomianism, Gnosticism, and mysticism as individuals, but something else altogether while looking for a church to call home. I thought orthodoxy would protect me from those evils, but in the end, I found my religious self more intolerable to my conscience than my non-believing self. Instead of looking in a mirror, I walked away. The bottom line, the problem is with me. In a single word, it is pride. It is the unfounded and unbiblical belief that I do not require others. My life can be summed up in another word: “frustrated.” Unable to cope with hurt, pain, and anger has cost me nearly everything I hold dear – except for Jesus. For a reason only He knows, He refuses to surrender me, so I move on in search of a Biblical orthopraxy that hopefully includes Gospel-oriented people who are compassionate, patient, and understanding.
We have lost the truth that we are the Body of Christ here on earth and we are to be carrying out the work Jesus did—healing, teaching that the kingdom of God is right here among us, and that God the Father loves every one of us.
Our food for the journey is the Body and Blood of Jesus received at Holy Communion to equip us for the work we are called to do—proclaim the Kingdom, heal the sick, bring the life of God to the downtrodden.
In addition we are to hear the Word of God read and taught in sermons (and not just the preacher’s favorite passages!) And we are to remind one another that we, together, are the Body of Christ, dependent upon one another just as our physical bodies need all the parts to be functioning.
These concepts of the early Church have not been taught enough and we are malnourished!
Thanks, Phillip, for once again bring to light a problem that plagues our society today and threatens to do ongoing damage to the relationships God has called us to invest in.
My three boys have given up on church, preferring to do their own thing or feigning that they’re asleep when I tell them, “It’s time for church.” I don’t force them to go anymore. Instead, I go hoping the singing won’t be awful (it usually is), and that the sermon will be meaningful and speak to where I’m at now.
Where I’m at is where I never thought I’d be: I desperately NEED the church; I need to know that I’m not alone in my battle against sin, against selfishness, against self-righteousness, against wanting this life to work. In addition to my Sunday tradition, my church is now found on bike rides with unbelievers who favor abortion, the transgender movement, the influx of immigrants and illegals, the mission-oriented and works aligned. I ride with them, and we laugh and talk about life, and I’m able to share my story, my story of living a life for 30 years solely for myself and my own enjoyment, until an accident on my bike (funny, isn’t it?) nearly cost me my life, and then how the church told me to stay out of R-rated movies, saying that I’d be hell-bound if the rapture happened while I was in the theater.
So, I listen to my Christian music alone, snatch scripture verses from devotionals and Our Daily Bread, and praise God for the vision he’s given me to pray for my boys, be the best father and husband I can be, work hard at what I love (the brain is an interesting organ!), and help out those I see around me.
The church? It’s the life I try to live, inviting my unsaved friends on bike rides and sharing how Jesus loves me, that he died for my transgressions and failures, and that He has a plan for my life. That’s what I feel called to do.
Romans 10:17 Faith comes by hearing and hearing by the word of God
It is by the work of the Holy Spirit that we are drawn to Jesus.
A prior post referenced KISS
If the church (small c) is declining it is not complicated.
There has been a decline in sound teaching and the work of the Holy Spirit.
The shelves at Barns and Noble are packed with christian self help book, Some authors have cranked out over 100 Million books,
Mega Churches preach prosperity. The gospel of salvation is void in many churches, Who do you say that I AM??