Dr. Ryan Burge has a dual career, teaching Political Science at a university and serving as a pastor in an American Baptist church. A self-confessed data nerd, he pores over polling data in search of trends in religion. Recently he posted a column on “Four of the Most Dramatic Shifts in American Religion Over the Last 50 Years.” Things typically change slowly in religion surveys, he says, but these four trends “still blow my mind.”
I’ll provide a brief overview of Burge’s findings, and you can find more detail on his website.
The Evangelical Surge (1983-2000)
Election year fever is heating up, and already we’re seeing internet headlines about the powerful voting bloc of evangelicals. When Jimmy Carter—a Democrat—catapulted into the presidency in 1976, and spoke openly about his born-again faith, a Newsweek cover story pronounced that bicentennial year “The Year of the Evangelical.” Yet, as Burge points out, the real surge in the movement took place in 1983. In a single decade, the percentage of evangelicals shot upward to encompass three in ten American adults.
During that growth spurt, evangelical megachurches were springing up across the country, and Christian music was gaining airtime. People like Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell were regulars on television, talking as much about politics as theology. When the media wanted a soundbite from an evangelical, they turned to such prominent figures who already had sophisticated satellite uplinks and would offer a ready opinion on any subject.
By the year 2000, however, the percentage of evangelicals had declined to the same level as existed in 1983, and little has changed since then.
Young People Lose Their Religion (1991-1998)
Burge’s second chart covers the next two of the four dramatic shifts. The year 1991 saw the beginning of a downward trend among 18- to 35-year-olds. The number in that age group who checked “Christian” when asked their religious affiliation began an abrupt decline, falling from 87 percent to 64 percent. Meanwhile the “Nones,” who had no religious affiliation, grew from 8 percent to around 30 percent. Noting the steep changes between 1991 and 1998, Burge says, “That’s an insane level of growth/decline in such a short period of time.”
Burge proposes several possible explanations. Politics became increasingly polarized, especially over culture war issues such as abortion, transgenderism, and same-sex marriage. The end of the Cold War lowered the barrier between God-fearing Americans and godless communists, even as a surge of immigrants gave exposure to other religions. In addition, the internet allowed young people to explore different faiths as well as listen to strident voices against all faith.
In a mirror image of the decline among Christians, the Nones experienced a fivefold increase in just three decades. Burge comments that “the rise of the ‘nones’ may be the most significant shift in American society over the last thirty years.” The trend inspired him to write a book about the phenomenon (The Nones: Where They Came From, Who They Are, and Where They Are Going).
The Collapse of the Mainline (1975-1988)
Burge’s final chart depicts a dramatic decline within mainline Protestant churches, which include the United Methodist Church, PCUSA Presbyterian, Episcopalian, American Baptist, the United Church of Christ, and some Lutheran denominations. These tend to be more moderate theologically than evangelicals, and most allow women pastors and are open and affirming to same sex couples.
In the 1950s more than half of all Americans belonged to this group; now barely 10 percent do so. Tens of millions have left mainline denominations, many of them opting for an evangelical church not affiliated with a denomination.
Burge, an American Baptist pastor, has no sure explanation for the major shift. Nor does he dare to predict the future.
Will the non-affiliated Nones continue to increase or has their number peaked? Will the disaffected young return to church as they become parents? Will mainline denominations revive, or will evangelicals experience another surge (even as their largest denomination, the Southern Baptist Convention, bleeds members)?
I’m neither a social scientist nor a prophet, so I leave these questions with you the reader. What do you think, and why does it matter?
Here in Canada sociologist Reg Bibby has been tracking these same trends for the past few decades. We’re in a similar situation here in the Great White North, although “Christian Nationalism” never took hold here in the way that it did in the USA.
I think a better (although harder to answer) question than “Who is Going to Church?” would be “Who is Following Jesus?”. The data makes it clear that the two are not necessarily the same thing.
I believe that many factors have led to the decline in church affiliation as well as disassociation from the current day label of Christianity. I believe the first, most influential factor is the church’s embrace of partisan politics. The angry, vengeful, intolerant, inflexible, closed minded, self righteous “Christians” have pushed away those of us who do not want to be associated with that group of people who we view as not practicing what they preach. The second biggest factor I see is the attitude that unless one ascribes to a very narrowly defined, “I have all the answers, and you are dead wrong” form of religion, you cannot be a good person, a good American, and your voice must be silenced, your rights denied. We have come to the point where some of these folks don’t just speak OF God, but FOR God…as though though they are the omniscient One. I am a lifelong Christian who struggles mightily to avoid joining the ranks of a “None”!
Corrupt practices by church leaders has caused the collapse of the Church. Pedophile priests. Charismatic millionaire TV Evangelists capitalizing on poor folks’ donations. Mega church founders e.g. Bill Hybels of Willow Creek, James McDonald of Harvest Bible Chapel. And incompetent proud unholy pastors at many local churches. Who needs instruction in holiness from any of these individuals?
My guess is Nones will continue to increase but at a slower pace, for 3 reasons. Most feel they’re moral people already, so church isn’t needed. I would add the vast majority don’t understand that their strong core beliefs originated from Judeo/Christian beliefs. Equality, care/valuing the poor, human rights, children valued, ethnic value and diversity…. None of these concepts and beliefs originated from other religions or enlightened groups but from Judeo/Christian beginnings. At least when understood correctly. But also, because the current mixture of faith and politics has created a minefield for even considering attending church. It’s assumed one must have certain strong political beliefs if they’re to attend church and if they don’t, they’ll be out of place at church. And the last thing someone wants on a weekend away from work is another difficult stress added. There are certainly other factors that just add more reasons to dismiss church. Ugly church history being the biggest in my opinion. If you view yourself as already moral in the areas that count, and you disagree with some of the largest political issues current Christians/churches emphasize, and those churches also have a very bad history of getting some issues terribly wrong in the past…where is there any motivation to even consider attending church or even identifying as a Chistian? I won’t bore you with what I think is the way out of this situation, but the first step requires a lot of Christian humility which I’m not perceiving much of at this time. Hopefully our Father in heaven won’t see the need to force us into humility in order to reflect him more accurately to the observing world.
It make take something big to awaken people to following the way of Jesus again. American Christianity is deeply entangled with power and money, and seems to have completely missed Jesus’s way of creating community—in which anyone was truly welcome—and has become a mere “sin” management system while being utterly blind to our own. Imagine if Christians started confessing our greed and dark relationship with Mammon, and our lust for power and its dark marriage to politics? What if then, in repentance we began making restitution to the poor and others we’ve harmed (which will take a whole lot of painful honesty), and practiced serving and giving the way Jesus taught? Giving everything away? Sharing all things in common? Taking the Sermon on the Mount seriously? The very thought offends us. But we’d find our true identity in Christ again and it would communicate the gospel of Jesus very clearly.