Dr. Ryan Burge has a dual career, teaching Political Science at a university and serving as a pastor in an American Baptist church. A self-confessed data nerd, he pores over polling data in search of trends in religion. Recently he posted a column on “Four of the Most Dramatic Shifts in American Religion Over the Last 50 Years.” Things typically change slowly in religion surveys, he says, but these four trends “still blow my mind.”
I’ll provide a brief overview of Burge’s findings, and you can find more detail on his website.
The Evangelical Surge (1983-2000)
Election year fever is heating up, and already we’re seeing internet headlines about the powerful voting bloc of evangelicals. When Jimmy Carter—a Democrat—catapulted into the presidency in 1976, and spoke openly about his born-again faith, a Newsweek cover story pronounced that bicentennial year “The Year of the Evangelical.” Yet, as Burge points out, the real surge in the movement took place in 1983. In a single decade, the percentage of evangelicals shot upward to encompass three in ten American adults.
During that growth spurt, evangelical megachurches were springing up across the country, and Christian music was gaining airtime. People like Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell were regulars on television, talking as much about politics as theology. When the media wanted a soundbite from an evangelical, they turned to such prominent figures who already had sophisticated satellite uplinks and would offer a ready opinion on any subject.
By the year 2000, however, the percentage of evangelicals had declined to the same level as existed in 1983, and little has changed since then.
Young People Lose Their Religion (1991-1998)
Burge’s second chart covers the next two of the four dramatic shifts. The year 1991 saw the beginning of a downward trend among 18- to 35-year-olds. The number in that age group who checked “Christian” when asked their religious affiliation began an abrupt decline, falling from 87 percent to 64 percent. Meanwhile the “Nones,” who had no religious affiliation, grew from 8 percent to around 30 percent. Noting the steep changes between 1991 and 1998, Burge says, “That’s an insane level of growth/decline in such a short period of time.”
Burge proposes several possible explanations. Politics became increasingly polarized, especially over culture war issues such as abortion, transgenderism, and same-sex marriage. The end of the Cold War lowered the barrier between God-fearing Americans and godless communists, even as a surge of immigrants gave exposure to other religions. In addition, the internet allowed young people to explore different faiths as well as listen to strident voices against all faith.
In a mirror image of the decline among Christians, the Nones experienced a fivefold increase in just three decades. Burge comments that “the rise of the ‘nones’ may be the most significant shift in American society over the last thirty years.” The trend inspired him to write a book about the phenomenon (The Nones: Where They Came From, Who They Are, and Where They Are Going).
The Collapse of the Mainline (1975-1988)
Burge’s final chart depicts a dramatic decline within mainline Protestant churches, which include the United Methodist Church, PCUSA Presbyterian, Episcopalian, American Baptist, the United Church of Christ, and some Lutheran denominations. These tend to be more moderate theologically than evangelicals, and most allow women pastors and are open and affirming to same sex couples.
In the 1950s more than half of all Americans belonged to this group; now barely 10 percent do so. Tens of millions have left mainline denominations, many of them opting for an evangelical church not affiliated with a denomination.
Burge, an American Baptist pastor, has no sure explanation for the major shift. Nor does he dare to predict the future.
Will the non-affiliated Nones continue to increase or has their number peaked? Will the disaffected young return to church as they become parents? Will mainline denominations revive, or will evangelicals experience another surge (even as their largest denomination, the Southern Baptist Convention, bleeds members)?
I’m neither a social scientist nor a prophet, so I leave these questions with you the reader. What do you think, and why does it matter?
I agree with many comments. It encourages me that I am not alone. My husband pastored churches for 35 years. I grew up in a conservative church of Christ. In college I ‘converted’ my fiancé and off we went, to convert the world. I now no longer attend any church. My family were tragically hurt in many ways by the very people we dedicated our lives to. We have two grown children with children of their own. Neither gather with other Christians and it is a subject they will not discuss. I feel at fault for making them follow man-made rules.
Trump has devastated Christians. How do lovers of God approve of such an unrighteousness man? And when did Christians become so exclusive? Why aren’t churches open to everyone and I mean everyone. No judgements or assumptions. Just love. God’s Spirit lives in us all. We are made in His Image. Can’t we trust Our Spirit to change us all. I love the broken because I am broken. Jesus is my church.
I totally agree with James Greengrass. So many people believe in Jesus but don’t go to church. I am one of them. I just couldn’t stomach the loving Christians following and preaching about such a hateful man in Donald Trump. I think he has singlehandedly been part of turning people away from church. How can you say you love everyone with the love of the Lord and then support so many racist viewpoints?! I couldn’t sit there every Sunday anymore and listen to it. I love Jesus with all my heart. I can’t support the church anymore. And it’s sad.
Please also see Nicholas Kristof in New York Times 23 Aug 2023.
America Is Losing Religious Faith –
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/23/opinion/christianity-america-religion-secular.html#:~:text=Pew%20reports%20that%2063%20percent,29%20percent%20from%2016%20percent.
Several things have and continue to distress me in the several streams of the Church. One is so many of us prefer and choose narcissists as leaders both in our churches and our nation. James Wilder in his book “The Pandora Problem: Facing Narcissism in Leaders and Ourselves” cited a study that concluded Canadian pastors were 3000% more likely to be narcissists than the general population. Evangelicals in the U.S, overwhelmingly voted for a man for president who is clearly a narcissist and are ready to do it again, no matter what crimes the man has committed. We have been repeatedly warned about fascism (Madeleine Albright and others). It seems the U.S. is teetering on the brink of fascism and most evangelicals and many in our congress don’t seem to either see it or care. Not good!
Christianity was once about Jesus, but many in the social justice (mostly mainline?) stream of the church seem to have lost any meaningful Jesus and evangelicals seem to be increasingly rejecting much of what Jesus says (Russell Moore and others).
If we and our religious leaders are fixated on politics or our own ministry or personal kingdoms, rather than on Jesus, Father and Holy Spirit, in what ways does it matter whether people are going to church or not?
Where will all this wind up? I don’t know. But both the English church and nation were in bad shape prior to the Wesleyan revival. yet both were deeply changed for the better by that revival.
Have we seen hints and precursors of deep spiritual revival in things like the recent Asbury awakening? I am praying for more.
My comment would mirror James comment. It’s not who is a ‘Christian ‘ but who is following Jesus, the two are vastly different. Most mega churches do not follow Jesus. They follow religion; the religion of money, manipulation, control and power. As for ‘Godless’ communists, the title may well be, but not the people, if you read Brother Andrew on the matter. If Christianity has proved false, which western evangelical Christianity has; being in love with power and money and idol worship (huge billboards!) it is better the young do leave such a dark place and find the truth. Love will come down all roads to find us. Christianity, Western Christianity needs to admit some very hard truths to itself. It has lied about the nature of God to force people into pews, and this has killed the church. Will it now look to the cross and begin to preach the message of the cross, which it has lost, or will it keep dividing into ‘groups,’ so it can point the finger and scapegoat, making it not the church at all, but the anti-Christ. God does not DO groups. He does humanity. That was the message of the cross and whole of scripture.