Dr. Ryan Burge has a dual career, teaching Political Science at a university and serving as a pastor in an American Baptist church. A self-confessed data nerd, he pores over polling data in search of trends in religion. Recently he posted a column on “Four of the Most Dramatic Shifts in American Religion Over the Last 50 Years.” Things typically change slowly in religion surveys, he says, but these four trends “still blow my mind.”
I’ll provide a brief overview of Burge’s findings, and you can find more detail on his website.
The Evangelical Surge (1983-2000)
Election year fever is heating up, and already we’re seeing internet headlines about the powerful voting bloc of evangelicals. When Jimmy Carter—a Democrat—catapulted into the presidency in 1976, and spoke openly about his born-again faith, a Newsweek cover story pronounced that bicentennial year “The Year of the Evangelical.” Yet, as Burge points out, the real surge in the movement took place in 1983. In a single decade, the percentage of evangelicals shot upward to encompass three in ten American adults.
During that growth spurt, evangelical megachurches were springing up across the country, and Christian music was gaining airtime. People like Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell were regulars on television, talking as much about politics as theology. When the media wanted a soundbite from an evangelical, they turned to such prominent figures who already had sophisticated satellite uplinks and would offer a ready opinion on any subject.
By the year 2000, however, the percentage of evangelicals had declined to the same level as existed in 1983, and little has changed since then.
Young People Lose Their Religion (1991-1998)
Burge’s second chart covers the next two of the four dramatic shifts. The year 1991 saw the beginning of a downward trend among 18- to 35-year-olds. The number in that age group who checked “Christian” when asked their religious affiliation began an abrupt decline, falling from 87 percent to 64 percent. Meanwhile the “Nones,” who had no religious affiliation, grew from 8 percent to around 30 percent. Noting the steep changes between 1991 and 1998, Burge says, “That’s an insane level of growth/decline in such a short period of time.”
Burge proposes several possible explanations. Politics became increasingly polarized, especially over culture war issues such as abortion, transgenderism, and same-sex marriage. The end of the Cold War lowered the barrier between God-fearing Americans and godless communists, even as a surge of immigrants gave exposure to other religions. In addition, the internet allowed young people to explore different faiths as well as listen to strident voices against all faith.
In a mirror image of the decline among Christians, the Nones experienced a fivefold increase in just three decades. Burge comments that “the rise of the ‘nones’ may be the most significant shift in American society over the last thirty years.” The trend inspired him to write a book about the phenomenon (The Nones: Where They Came From, Who They Are, and Where They Are Going).
The Collapse of the Mainline (1975-1988)
Burge’s final chart depicts a dramatic decline within mainline Protestant churches, which include the United Methodist Church, PCUSA Presbyterian, Episcopalian, American Baptist, the United Church of Christ, and some Lutheran denominations. These tend to be more moderate theologically than evangelicals, and most allow women pastors and are open and affirming to same sex couples.
In the 1950s more than half of all Americans belonged to this group; now barely 10 percent do so. Tens of millions have left mainline denominations, many of them opting for an evangelical church not affiliated with a denomination.
Burge, an American Baptist pastor, has no sure explanation for the major shift. Nor does he dare to predict the future.
Will the non-affiliated Nones continue to increase or has their number peaked? Will the disaffected young return to church as they become parents? Will mainline denominations revive, or will evangelicals experience another surge (even as their largest denomination, the Southern Baptist Convention, bleeds members)?
I’m neither a social scientist nor a prophet, so I leave these questions with you the reader. What do you think, and why does it matter?
Agree with many of the comments, particularly the noxious effect of Christian nationalism. While I agree the point is to follow Christ, not a religion, Christ also created the church. It is the place for believers to be mutually encouraged and practicing their gifts to support one another. A follower of Christ was never meant to be a Lone Ranger (in truth, the walk is too difficult!). We need one another.
Lots of negative comments here about Donald Trump. Part of the problem is Christians, for far too long, have believed that participation in civic life is not appropriate. Honestly, the secular community has taken over the arts, government, education, and many more areas. I do see a movement of Christians getting more involved in government policy, which is a blessing! From my vantage point, most of those are Catholics and
Charismatics. Maybe one day, we will have a godly individual who will believe in a border, energy independence, and getting manufacturing jobs back here, etc. I was worried about Donald Trump being our president but his policies were outstanding. He did more to stop human trafficking than any president ever. He also did more to help the pro-life movement than any other president. Sorry, sometimes the truth is complicated.
“Church Refugees: Sociologists Reveal why People are Done with the Church But Not Their Faith”
Book by Ashleigh Hope and Josh Packard
The above book talks about the “ phenomenon of the dones.” These are folks who still love Jesus but are done with the audience mentality of organized church. There are lots of us. We once held leadership positions or were considered the pillars of our local fellowships. The book articulates some of the reasons we are done.
I’m surprised Burge had no explanation for the collapse of attendance in mainline churches. I’ve read it started when these churches got too involved in left-wing politics at the expense of preaching about Christ. A similar decline is going on as well with evangelical churches and right-wing politics. We should not discount the effects of the church closings during the pandemic. Several friends on mine still watch services on TV rather than going in person and don’t have a good explanation for why except convenience.
What about the Catholics?